US elections: Whoever wins, will Americans lose?

October 15, 2016, 6:46 PM IST Economic Times in ET Commentary | India | ET

An important article By Mukul K Gupta as published in the Economic times for USA Citizens.

In a few weeks from now, the world will be spared from the uncivil and ugly US Presidential election campaign that it has been witnessing since the start of the year. Unfortunately, whichever candidate wins on November 08, chances are that the common American may well turn out to be the ultimate loser

Uncivil and ugly, as displayed by the conduct of the two key candidates during the entire election campaign, more so in the recent Presidential debates wherein more time was spent on emitting personal attacks on each other rather than discussing substantial issues – jobs, healthcare, security, climate change. Use of phrases such as Crooked Hillary, Little Marco, Racist, Sexist, Xenophobic, Islamaphobic, Buffon, Basket of Deplorables, mark the current election campaign making it different from all earlier Presidential campaigns held in the US. Name throwing and mudslinging in the current campaign is a reminder of the election campaigns usually witnessed in the Indian Subcontinent. This Presidential election campaign is also unique in another way – both candidates have certain uniqueness – if elected Trump, having completed the age of 70 years would become the oldest president to take office. Clinton at 69, anyway is the first female Presidential candidate ever nominated in America

Of the two key candidates, Donald Trump a rich businessman and reality television personality, came from “outside” the political establishment and soon muscled his way through to become the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, defeating all his challengers who were far more experienced in politics

Trump’s unprecedented popularity seems to flow primarily from his offensive and protectionist utterances, which he started making from early on in his election campaign. Utterances such as “building a wall along the Mexican border” and his call for a “total and complete shutdown of American borders for people of a particular religious community” seem to have resonated well with the middle class Americans, catapulting him as the Republican candidate. His erratic temperament though a subject of much debate, has not deterred his large group of followers

Trump’s pledge to make America “great again” has many racist and xenophobic connotations; his campaign laced with nationalistic and sexist jingoism has left many people even in his own GOP party frustrated. What’s, difficult to judge clearly is his strategy for job creation in America other than his usual rhetoric of bringing back jobs from other countries and decreasing taxes which would result in trickle down benefits. What’s, also not clear are his specific policies on foreign affairs, trade, security, climate change etc. His general belief seems to be that America needs to reassert itself by showing greater hegemony among the world powers and renegotiate existing trade and security deals with other countries, in putting America’s interest first. What seems apparent is that if elected he may find it tough to execute most of his election rhetoric and may well alienate some of America’s allies

Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, a career politician, who has been in public service as a Senator and Secretary of State. While she has the necessary experience and seems more qualified to take over the role of the President, her credibility has taken a severe beating in the “email” imbroglio – for sending official communications thru private email servers while heading the State Department. She claimed that she used her private email account for official use only for convenience and later apologized for the same. What has caught the public eye is her cavalier attitude of not only sending emails containing highly classified information thru her private email account but subsequently denying that any classified information was ever sent or received thru her private email account. Subsequent FBI investigations showed that several statements made by Hillary to the American public regarding the usage of her private email account were inaccurate. The FBI further went ahead to say that there was sufficient evidence that Hillary had been extremely careless in the handling of very sensitive and highly classified information, though they did mention that no evidence was found suggesting any intention of violating any laws, governing the handling of classified information

Another controversy plaguing Hillary revolves around the vast donations collected by the philanthropic charity set up by her family – Clinton Foundation; millions of dollars collected from across the world, from countries, individuals and foreign groups. Large contributions collected over the years, including the years when she was the Secretary of State. While there is no evidence yet found of any wrongdoings, it has given ample opportunity to her critics to slam her for alleged pay-to-play practices while heading the State Department and incites Trump to demand an investigation

According to many US economists, policies of both the candidates could well be harmful for the US economy. According to a detailed study recently conducted by researchers of a non-partisan institute (Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA) Donald Trump’s proposed economic plan including protectionist trade policies could send the country into recession and result in loss of almost 4.8 million private sector jobs. The same study also offers a skeptical view of Hillary Clinton’s trade policies particularly her opposition to the Trans-Pacific-Partnership, a new trade pact that US has recently negotiated with 11 other economies

Two imperfect candidates; one an inward looking Protectionist, an anti-immigrant Crusader who allegedly has not paid any income tax for nearly two decades; the other who amongst other things has often been criticized for her coziness with Wall Street. With both candidates mired in controversies and vague on key policy issues, the American folks seem to have little to choose from. Hillary will bring with her part continuity of the existing administration; Trump on the other hand will bring lots of change – changes, which have the potential of bringing about a new world order

With both Presidential candidates having high unfavorable ratings, victory is likely to go to the least unfavorable

(The above are personal views of the author. He can be contacted at mukulism1@gmail.com). Also on Twitter @mukulkg)

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.