The results of the recent parliamentary elections held in the United Kingdom on July 4, 2024, had been widely expected. The landslide victory of the UK's Labour Party led by Sir Keith Starmer, which won 410 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons with 34% of the popular vote, is a harbinger of popular expectations for change in the way the UK is governed.
These results throw up challenges and opportunities for the India-UK relationship, which have grown substantially over the past two decades under both the Labour and Conservative governments in London. The primary cause for the Labour landslide is widespread dissatisfaction with the way the Conservative Party-initiated policy for Britain to exit the European Union (EU), known as Brexit, has impacted the UK voters. Instead of maximising the UK's economic and political status outside the framework of the EU, Brexit appears to have resulted in widespread economic dislocations affecting ordinary people, and shrunk the UK's international profile significantly.
Proposals for reviewing Brexit by a new UK government will be inevitable. Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's Institute for Global Change has recommended prioritising to restore the trust between the UK and the EU as a first step for such a review. This would involve initiating confidence-building measures to address practical difficulties facing businesses and individuals on both sides; mutual agreements on how to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol; and adopting higher standard UK domestic laws on food, environment, and labour standards to align with EU legislation in these areas. In international affairs, the first test for the new UK government will be its participation in the NATO Summit to be held on July 9, 2024. The summit is being held against the backdrop of turbulence in the domestic electoral political process of the United States, which has had a "special relationship" with the UK since the two countries signed the Atlantic Charter in 1941. The UK is expected to continue to support the US on the conflict in Ukraine, and on Israel's actions in Gaza/Palestine. The real challenge for the UK will be on how it will engage with China, which will also have an impact on any economic recovery plans of the new UK government.
The UK election results contained examples of how the Indian diaspora has come of age in UK politics. As many as 26 Indian-origin UK politicians have been elected to the new UK parliament, including outgoing UK PM Rishi Sunak. The Conservative Party was able to win the Leicester East seat with Indian-origin candidate Shivani Raja for the first time in 35 years. In Wales, Kanishka Narayan of Labour Party became the first ethnic origin MP from the Vale of Glamorgan constituency.
India's relations with the UK can be expected to develop incrementally with the new government in London. Issues such as concluding a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries, liberalising UK immigration policies to increase the flow of Indian students and professionals to the UK, and increased cooperation in the application of technologies for development, including in the environmental sector, will be priorities for India. There will be challenges, too, for the two governments in addressing issues such as the increased activities of anti-Indian elements in the UK, cooperation on countering terrorism emanating from Pakistan, negotiating the UK's recourse to protectionist measures such as labour and environmental standards for bilateral trade, and differing perspectives on how fundamental human rights and freedoms are being upheld.
In the wider foreign policy framework, India will seek to engage with the new UK government on support for its regional and international priorities. These include the importance of maritime security in the Indo-Pacific, specifically keeping open the sea and digital lanes of communication that connect the UK and India through the Red Sea/Suez Canal. In the multilateral framework, India's proposals for "reformed multilateralism" to focus on the priorities of the Global South will be the backdrop for engaging the new UK government while participating in the UN's Summit for the Future, to be held in New York in September 2024.
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