Independent economists believe GDP growth may have stayed in top gear in Q2
NEW DELHI: The Indian economy is likely to have grown at a robust pace of 7.2-7.9% in the second quarter of FY19, independent economists said ahead of next week’s release of official estimates, putting the country well ahead of China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. However, they also expect a slower second half.
The high growth is despite headwinds of high crude prices, a weaker rupee and an uneven monsoon in the September quarter as these were offset by a pickup in construction, consumption and across-the-board improvement in services, they said. Commercial vehicles sales rose 37.82% in the first half of FY19.
This marks a slight moderation from nine-quarter high 8.2% growth recorded in the June quarter that had benefited from the base effect of low growth in the year earlier due to demonetisation and disruption in the run-up to the goods and services tax (GST) rollout in July 2017. The Chinese economy grew 6.5% in the September quarter.
The quarterly growth is seen to be in line with the full-year estimate of around 7.5% for FY19. The Reserve Bank of India expects FY19 growth at 7.4%. The average growth of eight estimates available with ET is 7.5%.
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