Will Narendra Modi win the 2019 PM elections? If yes, why?

As per Gourav Malpani-Political Observer-Thru Quora Digest

He will not win 2019 general election but he will definitely win 2021 election.

Reason Why, He will lose 2019 general election.

1. Uttar Pradesh has 80 Loksabha. In U.P. Trio of Congress, S.P., Mayawati. BJP Strategy is to divide Dalit & Muslim vote bank. Now, It will hard for Amit shah to divide vote & win seats.
2. Now, Bihar has 40 seats. Here duo of Congress & Lalu Prasad Yadav will work. Dalit have 16 % vote bank & Muslim has 17% of vote bank & Yadav’s. Lalu have hold over these Vote. Muslim vote always divide between Congress & RJD. As they will come together they will have majority of seats.
3. Now State like West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu where BJP has bare minimum presence. Consist of 42,20,39 Seats respectively.
4. Now BJP has to work over 366 seats to get into power. Now, Andhra pradesh , Telangana, Odhisa have strong presence of local party.

It will be very hard for BJP to manage & win over 366 seats. It will be hard to Win.

Now, After 2019 election , Prime minister equation will come in politics. Party which won highest no. of seats will be Prime minister. Mulayam , Mamta, Tejaswani yadav, Rahul Gandhi will front end contender. If our Luck favour us Politician like Chandrababu Naidu may get top post. Modi or Amit shah will be opposition leader they will not move to Gujarat because they know it is “Chand dino ki sarkar” ( Few days Government”).

History will repeat itself.

• As in 1996 HD Devegowda rule’s 324 days government. Mulayam will rule 324 days government.
• As in 1997 Indra kumar gujral has rule 332 days government Mamta will rule 332 days government.
• Now, Congress will go to president to resign from government. Because there Supreme Leader Rahul Gandhi is not getting chance to become Prime minister.

How it will affect our Economy?

• Inaction of government will halt many infrastructure project.
• Due to this FDI will hit all time low.
• Share market will tumble.
• GDP growth will decrease.

How it will affect our foreign relation?

• Israel will be ignored to please vote bank.
• USA will be ignored because of Trump.

With resignation of Congress, ECI will announce date of election. This time Modi will win election. All work which is stalled will resume. We might again see some Hard decision like Demonetization & some poor implementation like GST & Demonetization. But we will be building foreign Military base in Assumption Island, Sabang Island. We might see some of worst decision but some of the best decision but it will be much better than Inaction.

In 2026, general election Modi will again loose election. Modi will retire from Politics as Vajpayee did. UPA will form government, Rahul Gandhi will be Prime minister. UPA I will be benefited with work done by Modi. Then, UPA II will come one of the worst ruling government.

We will say we should have voted for Modi 2026 as well. As we say for P.v. Narshima rao, Vajpayee. We will say for Modi as well.

Another opinion by Abhinav Sharma

That is a question even Narendra Modi would not know the answer to. Let’s put our analytical skills to use though.

BJP won 282 seats on its own in 2014. It won all the seats in Rajasthan (25), Gujarat (26), Himachal Pradesh (4), Uttarakhand (5), Delhi (7) and Goa (2).

These 6 states combined won the party 69 seats as opposition parties were left to ponder over their existence. In these 6 states, BJP cannot simply win more than it did in the 2014 and it is obvious that due to anti incumbency against the sitting MPs, the number will naturally come down.

Similarly, in states like Madhya Pradesh (won 27 of 29 seats) and Chhattisgarh (won 10 of 11 seats) too it is expected that seat count will go down for the BJP as both these states are run by the party for as long as 15 to 20 years. The fact that BJP performed so well in the northern parts of India in 2014 means that they will be against a growing anti incumbency and loss of popularity on these seats.

Going by this logic, if the BJP has to come back to power on its own in 2019, it has to do in the south what it did in the north in 2014.

It can do better in states like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Punjab, West Bengal etc. In 2014, BJP did not have a base in most of the southern states but in the course of their regime, Amit Shah has tirelessly worked to strengthen the party in the unconquered territories. In addition, the loss of faith amongst the allies have not helped their cause but make no mistake, in politics nothing is permanent and everyone goes back to the one with superior powers and if it becomes the single largest party in 2019, which is of course expected, the regional allies will come back running in pursuit of power.

Having seen Amit Shah and Narendra Modi’s election campaigning and strategy making in various assembly elections, we know that the duo is a force to beat. Although, the opposition is trying everything to unite against the BJP but what they really lack is a common ideology and all are highly ambitious which means that it is going to be almost impossible to unanimously select a leader. It would at least take another 5 years for the Congress to reinvent itself under Rahul Gandhi and hence their chances in 2019 remain doubtful. Besides, India has not had a good history when it comes to third front governments.

In India, a party needs 272 to seats to claim the formation of government and personally, I am backing BJP to win 200 on their own. Hence, it should be another term for Modi led NDA at the helm till 2024, provided that they strategise well for the elections.

In my opinion, the revival of the Congress should start from the states. They face crucial elections in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2018. If they are able to win even 2 of these 4 states then they are going to have momentum on their stride going into the general elections. I will not be surprised if Congress wins all 4 states as they have formidable units with some really popular faces in all these states.