The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The meeting, held over two days (January 28–29), will conclude with Fed Chair Jerome Powell announcing the decision at 2 p.m. ET today.

Powell’s press conference will be closely watched for his views on inflation and future direction of interest rates. January FOMC meeting is also significant as it follows President Donald Trump’s return to office for a second term. Will Powell throw a surprise by agreeing to Trump’s call for a rate cut, remains to be seen.

In his first week back, President Trump called for an immediate interest rate cut. However, the Federal Reserve may delay further cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns. Between 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 5.25% to tackle inflation above its 2% target.

In late 2024, the Fed began to decrease interest rates, with a substantial 50 basis point cut in September, followed by lesser cuts in November and December, bringing rates down to 4.50%-4.75%. Projections indicate that there may be progressive cutbacks in 2025, potentially totaling 50 basis points. However, any future reduction will be contingent on obvious indicators of an economic slowdown and lower inflation.

President Trump’s low-tax policies are projected to stimulate economic activities, but his trade tariffs and immigration bans may raise inflation, postponing further rate cuts. The economy is, currently robust, and inflation persists, decreasing the need for significant rate cuts. The slowing labor market and impending revisions to non-farm payroll data may also affect future Fed decisions.

Meanwhile, markets are expecting fewer rate cuts in 2025. However, recent developments in China have caused significant market turbulence. The release of the DeepSeek R1 artificial intelligence model by Chinese start-up DeepSeek last week led to massive losses in the AI industry, including a $589 billion drop in Nvidia’s market value in one day.

As the impact of DeepSeek on the AI industry becomes clearer, it is likely to remain a key market focus. Additionally, surprises in U.S. inflation data could also influence the Fed’s plans.