TRUMPISM COULD OUTLIVE TRUMP INDIANS MUST GET MORE ORGANISED TO DEFEND THEIR INTERESTS IN AMERICA

BY ASHOK MALIK, TOI CONTRIBUTOR | UPDATED: APR 18, 2017, 12.54 PM IST



How quickly will President Donald Trump ‘settle down’ and fill the gaps in his administration? That remains a big question. In India, it is leading to hesitation in making firm assessments of the Trump presidency. For example, details of his approach to Afghanistan or the Indian Ocean region – how he hopes to balance a muscular military policy with absence of enthusiasm for liberal trade – are awaited. 

Nevertheless for India – and in this one incorporates the government, Indians with business stakes in the US, and those of Indian origin who live in America – some issues are being clarified. There is a transactionalism and a hard mood in the US that was captured by Trump but which has outgrown his election. Trumpism, if one may put it thus, is likely to outlive Trump, even if some of its manifestations are peculiar to him.

This does not mean India cannot find common ground with the Trump administration or the new America. That is very possible. Yet, tactical tweaks will have to be made and the interface with America’s polity and society will need to be redesigned. 

For a start, a ‘transactional’ Trump administration has more than one connotation. There is a sense that some in the president’s inner circle are susceptible to ‘chequebook diplomacy’ – the ability of international partners to leverage business deals for political influence. This is always a phenomenon in Washington, but appears to be acquiring greater salience with the closely-knit Trump team. 

If so it will give countries such as Saudi Arabia and China, which are used to cultivating constituencies in such a manner, enormous flexibility. India will be at a relative disadvantage.

Second, as the visits of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (the most successful trip by a foreign leader to Trump’s America) and President Xi Jinping have indicated, astute interlocutors are beginning to interpret ‘transactionalism’ as providing investment and creating jobs in the US. This will strengthen Trump domestically, and give those countries clout with him. In time, it could give them the space to structure and sustain a more “normal” trade relationship with the president – and allow them to retain access to the American market. 

Where does India stand here? It is a big player in services but the accelerated professional visa regime that has been America’s calling card since the early 1990s is nearing sunset. There is only so much diplomatic capital India can deploy in protecting H-1B visas. Nimble Indian companies, which have benefited from the H-1B system, are already making alternative plans. 

These could include greater investment and recruitment within the US itself, to overcome the possible demise of the H-1B regime. This will allow such companies to service the US market, albeit at lower margins and with higher costs. 

However, many such companies and particularly the IT sector are also using media and public pressure in India to push New Delhi to make H-1B visas the centrepiece of any bargain with Washington. There is a limit to how far the Indian government can do this. It has other fish to fry with the US and cannot be trapped with the H-1B dispute. 

This is especially so as Indian companies are, individually and in specific geographies in the US, creating alliances with local communities, state governors and politicians to safeguard business interests as the H-1B story tapers. While this survival instinct is commendable and typical of Indian entrepreneurship, it is not being optimised. 

It is not allowing India – whether the government or corporate stakeholders – to package a multiplicity of investments in and contributions to America’s economy and local communities. If intelligently organised, Prime Minister Narendra Modi can travel to the US with an impressive portfolio of what Indian companies have done for that country. 

At the very least, Indian companies in America need to appear on a common platform and set up a flagship institution to showcase their collective contribution. This is important for them in terms of perception management. It is also critical for Indian diplomacy. 

If the economy is throwing up challenges, so is society. The “browning of America” is a theme of local politics and any elected official will have to be mindful of it in the foreseeable future. In an extreme case, it may lead to incidents such as the February killing of tech worker Srinivas Kuchibhotla in Kansas City. 

Kuchibhotla’s death made headlines. An Indian colleague with him was saved when a good Samaritan, Ian Grillot, took a bullet from the white supremacist assailant. In response, the Indian community in Houston raised $1,00,000 for Grillot and the Indian government thanked him more than once. 

The harsh truth is such incidents are likely to recur. While the Indian embassy can provide episodic support, it cannot ultimately build a niche for the Indian diaspora within American society. If nothing else, the Indian community in the US has to get much more involved in local politics and in providing regular campaign finance and sponsorship to immediate political representatives and champions. 

While some well-heeled Indian Americans do make sizeable campaign contributions; many Indians don’t. Indian community engagement with American politics is neither widespread nor deep. Most members are content living quiet lives, as a “model minority” in a suburbia that is physically in the US but emotionally in India. In Trump’s America, that will not be enough. 

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/58236876.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst