Even after three years in power, a time when most leaders face anti-incumbency, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity has not waned. That's also despite his shock decision to ban high-currency notes last year that left a large number of people jobless, inconvenienced the middle class and pulled the economy down.
Add to that the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) a few months ago that has not only hit the economic growth but also left traders confused and fuming -- even the government admits that both the decisions have created a negative impact, but for the short term.
What is the secret of Modi's mass support? Maybe he has been able to convince people that whatever the immediate consequences of his steps, he is doing it all for the long-term good of the country.
A new survey by US-based Pew Research Center seems to support this theory. It can also offer Modi insights into how he is viewed and what people expect from him.
Growth is the key
The survey finds that most of Indians trust their government. "In India, where the economy has grown on average by 6.9% since 2012, 85% (of people) trust their national government," Pew Research said in a report based on the survey on governance and trust in key countries.
The linking of economic growth with people's trust in Modi indicates that a continued slowdown in the economy can turn masses away from him. India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slid to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent during the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year. If the decline continues, it can erode Modi's mass support.
Less-cash policy, JAM seem to be working
The survey finds that India is one of the three countries in the Asia Pacific where people support technocracy (a government comprising an elite of technical experts). "Asian-Pacific public generally back rule by experts, particularly people in Vietnam (67%), India (65%) and the Philippines (62%)," it said. Indian public's liking for technocracy lies in the fact that people see hope of development through technology and not through ideology. Despite his critics opposing Modi's emphasis on a cash-less economy, e-governance, big data and the JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and mobile) trinity for development at the grassroots level, the technological initiatives are liked by people who trust technology more than political ideas. The lesson for Modi is that people support him not for the ideology but for his secular technological initiatives.
Any tilt towards Hindutva and away from developmental technology can cost him dear.
Stay bold
Fifty-five per cent of respondents polled in India said a system in which a strong leader could make decisions without parliamentary or judicial interference is a “somewhat” or “very” good way of governing their country. This seems to be a less than ideal situation but if seen in proper context it makes sense. India's corrupt leaders and bureaucracy inspires little hope in people who look up to strong individuals who sound honest and committed.
Modi knows this and plays to this sentiment. His sudden decision to ban high-currency notes may have serious downsides but he sent people the message that he can bend the system for target corruption. The criticism by opposition that demonetisation was an autocratic step does not wash with people because they want autocracy, albeit the one that claims to be working for them. According to the survey, roughly half of both Indians (53%) say the military rule would be a good thing for their countries.
This does not show people's dislike for democracy but for the corrupt regimes democracy has thrown up so far. Modi's positioning as a strong leader who can do what he decides to appeals to this sentiment. Here, the lesson for Modi is if he grows mild and pulls out no other tough measure after demonetisation and GST, his popular support may weaken.
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