(This story originally appeared in 
on Nov 09, 2022)
on Nov 09, 2022)Neither a Republican landslide nor a Democratic surprise — that's the one-line summary of the high-octane midterms in US which will set the tone for the presidential battle in 2024.
The Republicans were counting on resounding wins in the House and Senate, tapping on issues like stubborn inflation and a looming recession. But the Red wave proved to proved to be just a ripple as President Joe Biden's party proved to be far more resilient with issues such as abortion rights and a general distaste for more extremist candidates playing a big part.
All 435 seats in the House and one-third of the Senate were being decided in the elections. But with power now expected to be split across the two parties, Washington is entering a period of policy-making gridlock.
Here are the key takeaways from the results ...
No 'Red Wave' but Republicans on course to take the House
For several weeks, Republicans predicted a “red wave” would carry them to power in Congress with voters repudiating majority Democrats for failing to tame skyrocketing inflation and address worries about rising crime.
However, the Democrats managed to stave off a Red sweep on Tuesday, leaving Republicans with a small House majority.By early Wednesday, Republicans had won 197 House seats and Democrats won 167. At least 218 are needed to claim a majority. There were numerous races still to be decided, and some may be subject to court challenges.
Making the contest tougher for GOP, many Democratic incumbents proved surprisingly resilient, outperforming their party's own expectations.
Now, this will spell a tough couple of years for Kevin McCarthy if be becomes the next House Speaker. He will have to navigate a fractious and sometimes irreverent caucus that is eager to wield the power of the majority and has little appetite to compromise with Biden.
A stronger-than-anticipated night for Democrats also gives them more leverage going into the last two years of the Biden administration.
Senate too close to call
The Senate, which Democrats currently control, remained too close to call, although their flipping of a Republican-held Senate seat in Pennsylvania bolstered the party's chances of holding the chamber.
Republicans needed one seat to wrest control of the evenly-divided Senate but by early Wednesday the only one to change party hands went to the Democrats
The Senate races remained in flux.
Republican JD Vance, a venture capitalist and author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” defeated Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio, denying Democrats a chance to pick up the open seat. In New Hampshire, Trump-styled Republican Don Bolduc failed to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan.
Republican control of the Senate would have given the party a veto over Biden’s nominations to fill top jobs at agencies and in the federal judiciary.
Setback for Trump
In a setback for former President Donald Trump, candidates for key posts in battleground states who supported his unfounded claims of election fraud in 2020 racked up defeats in the midterms.
Nationally, more than 225 candidates for governor, secretary of state, attorney general and US Congress on the ballot Tuesday were election deniers.
Former President Donald Trump wanted to solidify his grip on the Republican party, betting that the candidates he had personally endorsed (and backed his claim that) would do well and make him the undisputed nominee for 2024.
But with several of these so-called election deniers faring poorly, Trump's support would be diluted.
The DeSantis challenge
Compounding Trump's woes would Ron DeSantis' winning a second term as Florida governor by a landslide.
The triumph will pave the way for him to challenge Trump for the candidacy in the run up to the polls.
Trump himself recognized the threat and has launched a warning shot to his rival: “If he runs, he could hurt himself very badly,” Trump said in an interview Monday with Fox News and other outlets. “I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering.”
Ron DeSantis is the new Republican governor for Florida (AFP)
For DeSantis, all eyes will be on his next move — whether or not he has the courage to take on Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
"DeSantis is prepared for a head-to-head primary, and I anticipate he or his team will indicate that in the coming days,” David Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Florida, said. “They believe they can win sufficient delegates to capture the nomination and defeat Trump."
A recent poll of Floridians by Victory Insights found Trump and DeSantis knotted at 50% each.
Fetterman springs surprise
In a critical win for President Joe Biden, Democratic candidate John Fetterman flipped a Republican-held US Senate seat in Pennsylvania, beating celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz and bolstering his party's chances of holding the chamber.
This was a heartening news for the Democrats since the seat is key to the party’s hopes of maintaining control of the chamber.
Fetterman, who overcame a stroke earlier this year, credited his “every county, every vote” campaign strategy, in which the tattooed and hoodie-wearing candidate sought to bring the Democratic Party back to predominantly white working-class areas that have increasingly rejected it, even as he ran on a progressive platform.
Reprieve for Biden
Voters in both parties seemed clear about the impact of inflation on the economy. It was the top issue in exit polls.
Inflation in US — which, along with the economy in general, regularly tops the lists of voter concerns — is the highest in a generation, eating into paychecks.
Yet, many of those voters didn’t seem to hold Biden or the Democrats responsible: 42% said they still trusted the Democratic party to handle the issue better.
Republicans and Democrats have each painted dramatically different pictures of the economy’s health.
The GOP put the soaring cost of living at the center of their campaigns, blaming Biden and his party.
Meanwhile, Biden and his party have focused on an unemployment figure that is at its lowest in decades and an ongoing hiring boom that has kept-up consumer spending.
Support for abortion rights
Heading into the polls, abortion rights were on the mind of many voters, particularly women.
Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont approved referendums enshrining abortion rights in their state constitutions.
Deeply conservative Kentucky looked poised to reject a constitutional amendment that would have declared there was no right to abortion.
Michigan and California will now amend their constitutions to add the right to choose to have an abortion and use contraceptives. In Vermont, voters added an even broader right to “personal reproductive autonomy.”
The success of the state-level abortion protections demonstrate the widespread disconnect between the public and the Supreme Court, which erased 50 years of precedent in its June decision to leave abortion rights decisions to the states.
The support for these ballot measures in a wide variety of states is likely to spur similar efforts in coming years in additional jurisdictions.
Florida turning Red?
The victories of Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio, both Republicans, offer the latest evidence that Florida is becoming increasingly red.
The two soared to early reelection victories Tuesday, both winning Miami-Dade County, which Democrat Hillary Clinton carried by 29 percentage points in 2016.
Florida has been a classic battleground.
It twice helped propel Barack Obama to the White House.But the state, where the number of registered Democrats exceeded Republicans in 2020, has shifted increasingly to the right.
That's thanks to GOP inroads with Hispanic voters, as well as an influx of new residents, including many retirees, drawn to its lack of an income tax as well as its sunny weather.
Meanwhile, some Democrats blame some of Tuesday’s blowout losses to a lack of investment by their party.
History repeats itself, as always
It’s called history for a reason. The party that celebrates winning the White House is usually mourning a loss in the midterms two years later.
Add to that historical pattern an economy battered by inflation and teetering on recession, throw in fears about crime, and the outcome is close to certain.
For Biden and House Democrats, the likelihood of keeping power in the lower chamber of Congress was always slight. Republicans are expected to gain enough seats to retake the majority.
Since 1906, there have been only three midterms in which the party of the president in power gained House seats: 1934, when the country was struggling with a Depression, 1998 when the US was buoyed by a soaring economy, and 2002, when President George W Bush had a sky-high approval rating amid the national feeling of unity after the September 11 attacks.
Most expensive midterms
The 2022 elections were on track to cost $16.7 billion at the state and federal level, making them the most expensive midterms ever, according to the nonpartisan OpenSecrets.For perspective: The contests will nearly double the cost of the 2010 midterm elections, more than double the 2014 midterms and are on pace to roughly equal the 2022 gross domestic product of Mongolia.
At least $1.1 billion given at the federal level so far this election season has come from a small coterie of donors, many of whom have favored conservative causes.Tech billionaire Peter Thiel ($32.6 million), shipping goods magnate Richard Uihlein ($80.7 million), hedge fund manager Ken Griffin (68.5 million) and Timothy Mellon, an heir to to a Gilded Age Fortune who gave $40 million, are among the top conservative donors.
On the liberal side, hedge fund founder George Soros gave the most ($128 million), though much of it has yet to be spent. Sam Bankman Fried, a liberal 30-year-old cryptocurrency billionaire, gave $39.8 million.
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