How long can Taiwan defend against China for a conventional war? Will China break no-first-use to use nuclear weapons to annihilate Taiwan? What would be the cost China has to pay for that war?

Replied By Udayan Singh hru Quora :-

Interesting question! 

First, let us address the Nuclear question!

China has a no-first-use policy and would likely honor it during a war against Taiwan!

For 2 reasons:

1. Taiwan is a tiny country, both geographically and militarily, with respect to mainland China, nuking it would bring bad P.R for the communist party.
2. China considers Taiwan to be its ‘inalienable’ part and so it makes no sense for them to nuke its own territory.

In addition to that, the Chinese would have to face the wrath of the U.S which would definitely punish it badly for destroying one of its allies.

Now, coming to the first part of the question: How long can the Taiwanese defend itself against the PLA.

See, any assault on Taiwan by the Chinese would be a combination of Amphibious assault and air raids.

My guess is Beijing would go all-in with this.

The Chinese would first use their strategic rocket force to overwhelm the Taiwanese. Their aim would be to destroy the maximum of Taiwan’s war material on the ground and to cut off communication and paralyze supply lines.

To quash the invasion, in the build-up to the war, the Taiwanese government would indulge in bulk panic buying of Surface to Air missile systems like the THAAD and anti-ship missiles from friendly countries.

Taiwan has about 10 million people who are fit for active service. I am guessing half of them would be called up to bear arms.

The northern coast of Taiwan would be converted into a fortress much like the German effort to defend Normandy in 1944.

The Taiwanese air force would be the deciding factor in this war, as before mounting any airborne operations the PLA would want to establish air dominance over the strait of Formosa.

Now, I would not say that the Taiwanese pilots are elite or very good and would give a hard time to the PLA pilots. They are just meh!

First of all, they are not battle-tested, and second of all their aircraft inventory is also very average due to the reluctance of nations to trade with them.

The PLA would fight with the J-20 and J-10 against Taiwanese F-16 and F-CK-1 (a derivative of F-16).

Pic: Taiwanese F-Ck-1 (Derived from F-16 and F-5)

Now, I cannot give you a definitive answer but my guess is that without external help the Taiwanese airforce would capitulate in 1–2 weeks ( a very liberal estimate).

Post their aerial victory the Chinese would focus on airdropping para commandos into strategic locations throughout the Island.

One more thing that you need to know is that Taiwanese society is deeply divided on the question of the relationship with mainland China.

A sizeable minority believes in the one-China principle and want the Island to become a part of the mainland.

Some pro-Island cities and towns would fight hard against the paratroopers, while other Pro-mainland towns would surrender.

Next, would be a battle in the seas. The Taiwanese navy is all right. It is a frigate heavy force, which would be sunk or put out of action within a week, no doubt the Chinese navy would also bear a significant cost but overall the victory would be theirs.

Post establishing naval dominance, to support their paratroopers the PLAAN (the naval arm of PLA), would mount an amphibious assault on the northern coast. There are 13 beaches on which the Chinese could launch an assault.

Here, on these beaches, the first real battles of the entire war would be fought, as well-entrenched defenders would try their best to save their tiny island.

Under the pressure of constant rocket attacks and harassment by the fighter jets, the Taiwanese beach defenders would surrender after a heroic last stand.

The prisoners would be treated well (as is the norm) and be given propaganda materials by the political commissars while the remaining ultra-motivated fighters, who did not surrender would shift to the mountains and dense forests to wage a guerilla war.

After a 25 day hellish war, the red flag would fly atop the presidential palace in Taipei.

Casualty estimate-

China: 45,000–60,000 dead and wounded, 300–350 fighter jets lost, and 40–50 warships lost at sea.

Taiwan: 100,000–150,000 dead and wounded, 250 fighter jets lost and an entire navy scuttled.

But, of course, the whole thing written above will have a different ending, if ‘it’ comes in.